2021: What A Year

Ok, I’ll admit it…I wasn’t prepared for the impact that returning to work in person would have on my life and on TRET. Now, 2021 is coming to an end and I find myself yet again writing another end-of-the-year post in which I am apologizing for the recent inactivity on this awesome blog. This time, however, it’s a little different.

2021 marked 10 years since I published the first post on this blog. At the time I was real estate agent and teacher who was about to begin law school and was looking for ways to better understand real estate modeling and real estate finance. I hoped to create a community of like-minded people so that we could explore ways to better value real estate properties and mortgages and discuss the market. Ten years and many experiences later this blog has grown and transformed into a general forum on all things real estate and I am amazed at the direction it has taken. 2021 has been an amazing year for TRET, so let’s take a look at the year in review.

 The Market:

What a crazy year for real estate! 2021 started with an insane housing market in which demand greatly outpaced supply. The pandemic created so much pent-up demand that in some markets, average time on the market was less than two weeks. This state of affairs, was clearly a carry-over from the effects of the 2020 quarantine. As the year progressed, housing prices rose, however so did inflation, depressing any true wealth gains.

Inflation and pent-up demand places the housing market in a strange position, as inflation rises the cost of construction making an the housing supply unprofitable. On the other hand inflation reduces the real gains from selling property, which also makes selling property less desirable. The Fed’s response to this situation and the market in general will be to raise rates, which will lower demand, making acquisitions more expensive. This will lead to a market with inflated prices and high interest rates—a rare market in which buying is undesirable and selling is only mildly incentivized. For housing, 2022 is looking to be a slow year for housing as the market returns to normalcy. That said, the traditional approach to sales and acquisitions will likely be the most successful. CNN Business has a similar assessment of the market, but with a slightly different conclusion. Feel free to check out their article here.

Commercial real estate had a unique year as well, but for different reasons. The year began with depressed asset prices across all classes as businesses struggled to project their physical needs after the pandemic. Although asset values were down across the board, multifamily properties performed the best and proved to be the best way to the whether the storm. Then something even more interesting happened…seemingly out of the blue, institutional investors woke-up and began acquiring everything.

A surge of institutional acquisitions took place during the second and third quarters of 2021. Multifamily, retail and industrial properties started to surge. Office properties were being left behind, but many municipalities began to facilitate their conversion into multifamily properties in order facilitate even more activity in market. Then, just as quickly as it came, the wave was over. In retrospect, it is clear that the major players in the market were looking to move money into real estate to avoid the effects of inflation, but at the time, the frothy commercial market felt very much like a feeding frenzy.

The Podcast:

The 10^th Anniversary of TRET saw the start of TRET: The Podcast. Although it certainly wasn’t an easy journey, recording the podcast episodes with my childhood friend and real estate extraordinaire, Conrad Bastien, Jr. was a lot of fun. TRET also branched into TRET Shorts, which were also a lot of fun to make. Expect more in future. The podcast was an opportunity to explore a number of topics in a manner that required even more depth and research than would be required by a blog post. Moreover, the chemistry created on that podcast cannot be duplicated. Please feel free to check out our episodes, which are posted here and on this blog.

The Growth:

This year has also seen TRET expand into the area of guest contributors. We were privileged to benefit from the perspectives of a number of guest authors, who allowed us to expand our content. I am personally thankful for the contributions as they served a motivation to keep TRET going.

So after a year like 2021, where do you go? The only answer is up. Look for more and better from TRET in addition to a migration to a new platform. TRET is growing, we’d love you all to be a part.

TRET Short: For Sale By Owner

Join the TRET team as Conrad Bastien Jr. discusses For Sale By Owner properties in our third TRET Short:

TRET Short: For Sale By Owner

The End of Summer

Stephon Martin

August is coming to a close and although Summer isn’t officially over until September 23^rd, the end of August has an unofficial feel of transition. School will soon have begun for all children in the United States and the country will attempt to push forward out of the shadow of COVID-19. Some areas will forge ahead more successfully than others, but an attempt will be made by all. The beginning of September means that the holiday season is just around the corner. With the impending change of the season, how will the real estate market be affected?

Residential Prime Time

The first few months of the school year, be they August or September, typically trigger a time of reflection for homeowners. The start of the school year is one of the many ways that people mark the passage of time and the beginning of yet another academic year frequently prompts many homeowners to put their houses on the market. The current seller’s market should only serve to further motivate more homeowners to try to capitalize before prices drop. As Bob Vila.com points out, a few select markets have already begun the decline or, in some cases, never quite started the climb. September, October and November will be true indicators of how close to a new normal we really are, both socially and in the residential real estate market.

Commercial Watershed Moment

The current commercial real estate press is praising the bustling commercial real estate market, fueled primarily by multifamily acquisitions and refinances. This praise, however, is a bit shortsighted, as it fails to address the woes of the office market and the real issues of use and change in the retail market. With the economy so tenuous, any good news is great to hear, but commercial real estate has some real questions on the horizon. It seems that most participants in the commercial real estate market are taking a “wait and see” approach, while continuing to invest in the few small pockets where retail and office are making some headway.

Well, that is my quick take on today’s market. I couldn’t let August pass without giving a recap. Please feel free to put your comments below. 

Moving to a Bigger House to Start a Business: How to Do It

 

Suzie Wilson

Starting a business in a new community can be challenging. Preparing to move because current living arrangements do not allow you to run a business from your home can be difficult, but it's doable. House hunting, moving, and starting a venture all require detailed planning. However, the enthusiasm, economic growth, and products or services you bring to the new community will reward your efforts.

To succeed in finding the right home for your business and prepare for future expansion, The Real Estate Think Tank offers the following tips below.​

The Ultimate Guide to Picking a New Tenant Referencing Provider

Hello TRET Readers/Followers:

Want to know more about ways to check references for residential tenants? Please read the article below from Just Move In.

The Ultimate Guide to Picking a New Tenant Referencing Provider

Improvement Options You Should Consider to Increase the Value of Your Home

Please enjoy this article from guest author Suzie Wilson of Happierhome.net

Unless you plan to sell your house “as-is,” when you’re ready to list your home, you have a lot of work to do. While there are some benefits of keeping the original fixtures and features of a home, staying up to date with the latest home trends is crucial in selling as quickly as possible. The good news is you can get the job done with some simple upgrades. Below are a few that you need to consider.

Stick With Properties—For Now

Stephon Martin

It is an interesting time in real estate—we stand on the precipice of the ending of a national foreclosure moratorium, interest rates are extremely low, the housing market is red-hot, and the commercial market is still unpredictable. What should a real estate investor do now? While there are a number of options that can lead to success, there is one caution—stay away from whole loans.

Cautioning against whole loans almost goes against the very nature of this blog, which promotes all profitable methods of real estate investment. Whole loan trading and valuation is the very reason why I started this blog and whole loan investing can be a great way to find hidden value real estate. That said, the following are various reasons why whole loan investment is not the best strategy in the current market:

Press ‘Home’ — Selling Properties With Smart Tech

 

Please enjoy this article from guest author Suzie Wilson  of  Happierhome.net

There are many advantages to home automation: ease of use, better accessibility, and let’s face it — there’s something cool about a fireplace that starts up when you clap. What you may not have foreseen, however, are the benefits that technology provides when selling a property.

The Role of Tech

 In almost all areas of life, it’s clear that the pandemic has increased our reliance on tech. This is no less true in the housing market, where the need to actually step inside a property has been somewhat reduced by the use of 3D walkthroughs, video-chat tours, virtual open houses, and Zoom realtor consultations. This is good news for prospective sellers as, in the wake of COVID, housing sales have bounced back to levels unseen since pre-2008. If you are looking to sell your property, physical limitations need not slow you down.

12 Baffling Mortgage Acronyms Explained (UK)

Hello TRET Readers/Followers:

Please check out the Tembo article below regarding mortgage acronyms in the UK:

12 Baffling Mortgage Acronyms Explained

Foreclosures and the Moratorium

Stephon Martin

The Biden administration has extended the COVID-19 moratorium on foreclosures to July 31, 2021. Totally avoiding the policy and ideological discussions that could be had about such a decision, one thing is apparent—the additional month extension will increase the backlog of foreclosure and eviction cases that courts around the country will face once this moratorium has ended. Absent any legislative changes, the implementation of creative government programs mitigating distressed loans or both, foreclosure filings, executed foreclosure judgments and foreclosure-related evictions are all set to see an uptick over the next year.

An increase in residential foreclosures and evictions is certainly bad news for affected homeowners and tenants, who will have to find new living arrangements, undergo costly moves in short timeframes, uproot their lifestyles and, in some instances, face long term financial effects. Increasing foreclosures will also serve as a market correction in the real estate market, which is currently driven by inventory scarcity. Amidst the market change and its social implications, many real estate investors can be left wondering which strategy to employ. The answer is simple—any or all of them.

Calculating the Cost of Delay

Stephon Martin

Happy Memorial Day to all and a heartfelt thank you to all those who serve and have served our country. Your sacrifices are truly appreciated by TRET.

Let us quickly discuss, on this last day of May, the value of Delay. Late payments, be they intentional or not, are costly, no matter how late they are. Time has a calculable value and delayed payments provide a monetary benefit to the payee and punish the lender or vendor. This value is easily observed in the world of retail, where giants like Wal-Mart, not only connect the speed with which they pay their vendors to the success of the products in their stores, but also fine retailers for late shipments. In retail, late shipments equate to lost sales. In real estate, late payments lead to increased opportunity costs and decreased value of money.

ARMs: A Quick Look

Stephon Martin

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are a viable financing option for both single, multifamily and owner-occupied commercial property owners. Ever since their formal establishment by Title VII of the Garn–St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982, ARMs have offered the opportunity to link mortgage payments to marketplace activity. Coupled with the rate collars, ceilings and floors, these financial instruments have the potential to lock in the conditions of a favorable interest rate market, at interest rates that are typically lower than a fixed-rate mortgage. In the world of retail real estate, lower rates can translate into increased purchasing power. For the real estate investor, however, rate fluctuations and potential for sustained above market-rates usually tends to also lead to an early refinance. With the January 3, 2022 deadline for ARMs to decouple from the LIBOR index imposed by Fannie and Freddie, now is an opportune time to take a look at ARMs and their role in the mortgage market.

How to Navigate Legal Structures in Real Estate

Stephon Martin

As the real estate market attempts to move past the COVID-19 pandemic and progress toward a “New Normal,” federal moratoriums have become a way of life in real estate. Navigating the legal landscape of a local market has always been part of creating wealth in real estate. Every real estate marketplace is subject to its own local laws, as well as its state law and federal law. At the highest level, real estate investment and development is a game of understanding the rules—the applicable laws, ordinances, building codes, etc., and knowing when you can bend them in your favor through variances, court cases and lobbying. Although much of this may seem a little nefarious, it need not be, as our legal system was designed to establish a certain set of default rules for real estate, with a mechanism to allow for change in the event that either some rules are inapplicable generally or inadequate for a given situation. That stated, below are some ways to capitalize, navigate or at least survive the laws of any real estate market:

Why Most People Don't Get Rich In Real Estate

Stephon Martin

Initially, I intended this post to be a continuation of my prior post on how to get rich in real estate. I was going to address the barriers to entry that most people confront when attempting to begin a career in real estate and offer some suggestions on how to get around them. I am still going to address some of those barriers, but upon further reflection, I think that there is a common theme amongst most of the reasons why most people do not succeed in real estate when they wish to do so—motivation.

This may seem harsh, but please let me qualify my statement by saying that it is not easy to maintain consistent motivation. Having sufficient motivation to push through real estate losses, market downturns, bankruptcies or even years of unfruitful prospecting takes inner strength. During down times and after particularly difficult lessons in real estate, it can often feel like the experience was a sign to quit or move in a different direction. It takes true motivation, self-confidence and some self-delusion to look at a negative real estate experience, learn from the experience and continue on. This motivation is intrinsic and it only comes from a goal-driven approach to make it in a real estate. Quitting can never be an option. To that end, I want to share the following link to “The Strangest Secret” by Earl Nightingale, in the hopes that it is helpful to someone.

The Strangest Secret: Earl Nightingale

How To Get Rich In Real Estate: The Proven Method

Stephon Martin

Welcome the first post of the New Year! A number of years ago I wanted to start a business purchasing residential mortgages in the secondary market. This was a significant time after the Great Recession of 2009 and although the smoked had cleared from that downturn, enthusiasm in the mortgage secondary market had not yet fully recovered. I knew that if I were to market my business idea, which I was positive was sound, I would have to not only formally document it in a presentation and a business plan, but would also have to show actual positive implementation results. I realized that I would have to raise a small amount of capital to implement this strategy on a small scale, so that I could present it to larger investors upon its successful completion.

The End of 2020: Now What?

2020 has been a life-changing year for everyone, literally everyone. From the global pandemic, to the fluctuating economy, not to mention the seismic shift in the perception of "going to work," it is safe to say that the world is different place than it was 12 months ago. Now what?

Every year Bloomberg Business Week puts out its "Bloomberg 50"--a list of 50 individuals that have made their mark during the prior year. Although this year's list contains a number of impressive men and women who were able to quickly mobilize and make moving, positive contributions during this tumultuous year, it is notable that not one member of this list was mentioned for contributions to the real estate market. In fact, there are many executives on the list that are touted for reducing the size and/or the footprint of their companies, which in many instances includes real estate divestment. Furthermore, Blackrock, a private equity that is well know for its real estate investments, has made the list, not for real estate, but for its renegotiation of national debts in South America.

Let’s Not Forget the Expenses

When either forecasting, underwriting or simply checking the figures on a deal, it is important to account for expenses. The mere mention of the word expenses immediately brings certain images to the mind of most real estate professionals, such as taxes, labor and materials. Proper accounting for such expenses, however, can make or break a financial model and skew underwriting assumptions. That said, it is important to employ the following practices to ensure that your expense estimates are accurate and reflective of the market.

Adverse Possession: Why It Makes More Sense Than You May Think

Photo by Louis from Pexels

As we wrap up the months of October, many images of the month come to mind—Fall, Halloween, pumpkin season, apple season and Columbus Day. Nearly two weeks ago, we all experienced the ever-evolving view of both Christopher Columbus and the celebration of his holiday. In contemplating my thoughts on Columbus’s role in American history and his appropriation of land, I couldn’t help but make a connection to the real estate concept of adverse possession

Adverse possession is the legal ability to take over the land of another person by openly and notoriously acting like you are the owner over a number of years. The ways that a person in adverse possession can demonstrate open and notorious occupation of land differ from locale to locale. Some examples of open and notorious possession have been constructing a fence, maintaining the lawn, receiving mail and, the most open and notorious of all, paying property taxes.

Lesson From the Pandemic For Residential Landlords

The effects of Covid-19 on the residential rental market are apparent—many jurisdictions have enacted rent freezes, landlord/tenant courts have been shut down and moratorium on evictions and foreclosures have been set. Moreover, the accompanying downturn in the economy has left many without the ability to pay rent on time, if at all.

Considered rationally, the need for all of the social safety nets put in place for renters is obvious. The only way to truly survive a global disaster is to band together and implement a series of solutions. Radical measures had to be taken to mitigate the global pandemic. “We’re all in this together,” is not just a motto, it’s a reality. As a society, we are tasked with taking care of our most vulnerable populations, because the repercussions of not doing so are far more expensive than the costs of their protection. In this instance in particular, increased homelessness and/or a wave of relocations due to a rise in home displacement would only serve to exacerbate infection rates around the nation. That said, here are some clear lessons that residential landlords can learn in the wake of this global event.

Real Estate in the Time of Pandemic

Photo by CDC

With our country beginning to find its way to a new normal at the end of months of quarantine, we in the real estate market are all left with one nagging question—What should we expect from here? 

Like most people, I do not have definitive answer. If you are over the age of thirteen, however, this pandemic is certainly not the first market disruption that you have experienced and with each such occurrence, we all learn some valuable lessons about the real estate industry. With that said, here are a couple of lessons that we can learn from this particular time of change: