The End of 2020: Now What?

2020 has been a life-changing year for everyone, literally everyone. From the global pandemic, to the fluctuating economy, not to mention the seismic shift in the perception of "going to work," it is safe to say that the world is different place than it was 12 months ago. Now what?

Every year Bloomberg Business Week puts out its "Bloomberg 50"--a list of 50 individuals that have made their mark during the prior year. Although this year's list contains a number of impressive men and women who were able to quickly mobilize and make moving, positive contributions during this tumultuous year, it is notable that not one member of this list was mentioned for contributions to the real estate market. In fact, there are many executives on the list that are touted for reducing the size and/or the footprint of their companies, which in many instances includes real estate divestment. Furthermore, Blackrock, a private equity that is well know for its real estate investments, has made the list, not for real estate, but for its renegotiation of national debts in South America.

The lack of presence of real estate in this list is yet another illustration of what was obvious to all real estate professionals--2020 was not the year of the major real estate transaction. As people hunkered down during to quarantine, the economy fluctuated and work-from-home became the norm, the real estate market dramatically changed. Mortgage delinquencies rose, office spaces became more available, the cost of materials trended upward and permits for new projects trended downward. Migrations from urban areas also took place en masse in March and April as those with the means and desire to seek less crowded surroundings during the spread of the pandemic did so. Although the amount and duration of this recent migration may be disputed, the effects of this exodus have noticeably shifted the dynamic in many local real estate markets, for better or for worse.

As asked earlier, "Now what?" Anyone that has paid even a little bit of attention to this blog over the years knows that I do not "do" doom and gloom. There is always opportunity in change and if there is one thing that 2020 has done well, it is that it has exposed a number of opportunities. From the rise of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies to the consideration of rezoning in urban areas, opportunities to add value, create wealth and thrive in the real estate market are going to present themselves throughout 2021. Rather than make a brief list of some of these opportunities in this post, I will attempt to explore them more in depth in posts throughout the upcoming year. 

Instead of looking back on notable movements in the real estate market during an unprecedented time, I have decided to look forward to the apparent opportunities of the upcoming year. So, please join me as The Real Estate Think Tank.com celebrates its 10th year in existence in 2021. It has been a wild ride thus far, let's conquer next year together. 

See you in 2021.

Let’s Not Forget the Expenses

When either forecasting, underwriting or simply checking the figures on a deal, it is important to account for expenses. The mere mention of the word expenses immediately brings certain images to the mind of most real estate professionals, such as taxes, labor and materials. Proper accounting for such expenses, however, can make or break a financial model and skew underwriting assumptions. That said, it is important to employ the following practices to ensure that your expense estimates are accurate and reflective of the market.

Watch the Market

The market always is always newsworthy, but for real estate professionals certain metrics will indicate expense tendencies. One such metric or indicator is Housing Starts. Housing Starts are an indicator that closely predicts the residential real estate market. It tracks the number of construction projects that have started construction after filing for a building permit. This data is tracked by the Census bureau, which conducts random surveys of building permit filers. Other such indicators are the prices of timber, copper, steel and raw materials. Movement in the Futures for these materials is even more indicative of how the market believes these materials will fare, as these are the prices that people are willing to pay in order to make sure that they are not hurt by pricing changes.

Speak with Professionals

No one is more up to date on the trends of expense pricing than the very people whose livelihoods depend on them. Below is a short list of some real estate professionals that could be helpful:

Accountants: These number crunchers are great general resources for expense pricing, as they are usually deal with many different types of business and are privy to the costs amounts of many different markets. 

Contractors: Few professionals are as heavily affected by material and labor prices as contractors. As such, they are usually keenly aware of pricing trends. 

Local Governmental Employees: Assessors and other county, state and local staff are usually awesome resources for filing and governmental fees. They are also usually aware of any upcoming changes in these fees. 

Local Vendors/Suppliers: No one knows prices and pricing trends like the professionals selling materials.

Remain Flexible

Flexibility is crucial to proper prediction. Whenever forecasting or modeling, it is important to build in fluctuations into your expense assumptions. I typically account for an ambitious 5% year over year increase, with the understanding that if prices increase by a lesser amount or drop, my projected performance will only improve. Once notified of a significant change in a particular expense, it is important to update your models or calculations accordingly to ensure accuracy.

Accounting for expenses is an ongoing process that takes attention to detail. Accurate expense assumptions, however, can make or break your deal, so the effort is well worth it. That is my take on expense accounting. Please leave your thoughts below. 

Adverse Possession: Why It Makes More Sense Than You May Think

Photo by Louis from Pexels

As we wrap up the months of October, many images of the month come to mind—Fall, Halloween, pumpkin season, apple season and Columbus Day. Nearly two weeks ago, we all experienced the ever-evolving view of both Christopher Columbus and the celebration of his holiday. In contemplating my thoughts on Columbus’s role in American history and his appropriation of land, I couldn’t help but make a connection to the real estate concept of adverse possession

Adverse possession is the legal ability to take over the land of another person by openly and notoriously acting like you are the owner over a number of years. The ways that a person in adverse possession can demonstrate open and notorious occupation of land differ from locale to locale. Some examples of open and notorious possession have been constructing a fence, maintaining the lawn, receiving mail and, the most open and notorious of all, paying property taxes.

To most, the taking of land from a landowner seems to fly in the face of the American capitalistic sentiment. “Redistribution of wealth” has been a threatening concept in our country since the Declaration of Independence and is often seen as antithetical to the American Dream of making your own way through your own efforts. Seen in the light of resource management, urban planning and blight prevention, however, the mechanism for adverse possession does make sense.

Photo by Tomas Anuziata from Pexels 

The motivation behind most zoning and urban planning decisions is effective, efficient land use. If land is properly categorized, zoned and used, the residents of an area of can all coexist with minimal interference and presumably live together more happily. Improper land use clearly interferes with coexistence. The factory that is emitting toxic waste will negatively affect a housing development next door and the adult entertainment establishment will clearly have some negative effects on the school that is located across the street. Such issues are apparent and can be solved through zoning laws and decisions. Neglect, however, is a form of misuse that cannot be effectively managed through the zoning code. Although local laws can require certain maintenance standards, a neglectful landowner will likely ignore the consequences of not complying with these laws just as readily as he or she ignores the property. Neglected property will eventually lead to much larger issues, as discussed in this prior post.

Adverse possession is the remedy for protracted property neglect. It rewards the person who maintains a property and punishes the neglectful property owner. It requires such a high level of investment from the maintainer and punishes such a high level of neglect by the property owner that it cannot
reasonably be labeled as an effect method of property redistribution. The property owner that ignores a property for 7 – 25 years is effectively creating a dangerous situation and is appropriately penalized for such neglect, as their actions have a direct effect on those living and working around the property.

Although the actions of Christopher Columbus and their consequences may be questioned, the necessity of a mechanism like adverse possession is clear. Extreme property neglect is harmful to a community and this old legal custom is rarely disputed. One of the measurements of a vital community, however, is how infrequently issues of adverse possession arise. 

This is my take on adverse possession. Please feel free to leave your comments below.

Photo by Tim Mossholder from Pexels

Lesson From the Pandemic For Residential Landlords

The effects of Covid-19 on the residential rental market are apparent—many jurisdictions have enacted rent freezes, landlord/tenant courts have been shut down and moratorium on evictions and foreclosures have been set. Moreover, the accompanying downturn in the economy has left many without the ability to pay rent on time, if at all.

Considered rationally, the need for all of the social safety nets put in place for renters is obvious. The only way to truly survive a global disaster is to band together and implement a series of solutions. Radical measures had to be taken to mitigate the global pandemic. “We’re all in this together,” is not just a motto, it’s a reality. As a society, we are tasked with taking care of our most vulnerable populations, because the repercussions of not doing so are far more expensive than the costs of their protection. In this instance in particular, increased homelessness and/or a wave of relocations due to a rise in home displacement would only serve to exacerbate infection rates around the nation. That said, here are some clear lessons that residential landlords can learn in the wake of this global event.

1.       Paying Tenants Are Worth Their Weight In Gold

Those who were able to enjoy relatively uninterrupted streams of cashflow during the past few months are truly ahead of the game. Finding tenants with the ability to pay rent on time and the willingness to do so is a difficult, but not impossible task. Great systems for vetting renters are key to doing so, but active, just and appropriate property management also plays a big part in the search and retention of paying tenants. Happy tenants are more likely to prioritize their rent expenses.

The compatibility of the property to its neighborhood is also key to the retention of paying tenants. Properties that effectively service the neighborhood’s population, such as those that are accommodating to the social and/or economic needs of the community tend to have renters that are more willing to pay their rent expenses. Although some of these characteristics can be relatively immutable, such as proximity to a popular bus or train line or to certain religious institutions, others are within the control of the building owner, such as providing high-speed Wi-Fi in areas that cater to the tech workforce. Whether immutable or not, these factors influence the rental experience of each tenant and can facilitate the connection that tenants have to the property, giving them further incentive to pay rent on time.

2.       Location Determines Approach

Once again the old real estate adage rings true—location, location, location. The location of a property, better stated, the laws of the jurisdiction of a property have a direct effect on the method of mitigation that a landlord can take for a loss of rent. In areas with more tenant protections, long term planning should be the order of the day. Tenant negotiations and/or buyouts, when legal, may be a viable, but time-consuming option. Analyzing and maximizing the value of one’s property in the interim will also be key. Utilization of advertising space, cosmetic upgrades of vacant units or even a higher standard of efficiency in building operations may all be necessary, as non-payments begin to resolve.

The same techniques can also be applied in jurisdictions with less tenant protections, as well, and will yield results. Their application, however, becomes more critical in areas where the law favors the tenant. Before writing off jurisdictions with strong tenant protections, please keep in mind that these areas typically boast lower cap rates, so if the price and time are right, exiting a property may be a viable option.

3.       Affordable Housing Is The Wave

Rental assistance programs, like Section 8, have been a lifeline to many landlords during this time. Some building owners have sworn by these programs prior to the pandemic and have been proven right. The government has not waivered in its consistency in rental payouts during the pandemic. Moreover, the relative scarcity of these programs makes them highly coveted by tenants, who tend to pay regularly to maintain their eligibility. The government has made it a priority to ensure housing program payments to stabilize rental housing and building owners should take advantage

By no means an exhaustive list, these three points are some of the many lessons that landlords can learn in the wake of this devastating pandemic. That is my take on this topic. Please feel free to leave your comments below.

Real Estate in the Time of Pandemic

Photo by CDC

With our country beginning to find its way to a new normal at the end of months of quarantine, we in the real estate market are all left with one nagging question—What should we expect from here? 

Like most people, I do not have definitive answer. If you are over the age of thirteen, however, this pandemic is certainly not the first market disruption that you have experienced and with each such occurrence, we all learn some valuable lessons about the real estate industry. With that said, here are a couple of lessons that we can learn from this particular time of change: 

1. COVID-19 Wasn't The End Of The World

Photo by Anna Shvets

The Corona virus pandemic is clearly a historical event and one of the most pervasive pandemics ever. Pandemics are an unfortunate part of human history and have happened a number of times in the last century. The world-wide nature of this particular pandemic, coupled with the inter-connectivity of today’s world, may make our current situation historically novel, however, despite the idyiosyncracies of this pandemic, humans have a history of overcoming pandemics and moving forward. The loss that COVID-19 has caused, in lives, wealth and production cannot be replaced. It is important to remember, however, that while the results of this destruction must be mourned, the real estate market will come back and has rebounded from worse. 

2. With Every Disruption Comes Opportunity

Large market disruptions and crises are much like forest fires--they are extremely destructive to everything effected. Also like forest fires, these events clear a path for growth that may not have been possible prior. The real estate market, like most other markets, will rebound and it is the duty of every real estate professional to be diligent in looking for ways to contribute toward the structuring of a new normal in our changing world. 

3.Things Will Not Be The Same

There are a number of lessons that the past couple of months have taught us, not the least of which are the capabilities of our remote learning and working infrastructures and the importance of residential real estate in times of crisis. Unfortunately, the pandemic has also made many of us leery of in-person interaction and created a hypersensitivity around perceived health. Some of the changes that have resulted from the pandemic may dissipate over time, but no one who has lived through the quarantine will ever forget the experience. That said, it is important that real estate professionals stay alert to changing trends as we all quickly try to determine which of the adjustments made will become a regular part of our lives. 

4. Home Will Take On A New Role

One thing that has been apparent throughout the quarantine is that there is no place like home. Residential real estate will certainly be viewed differently going forward. Consumers are bound to be much more beholden to their preferences and the sanitary status of a property may be its selling point. Newer construction may be able to demand more of a premium initially, given its modern features and shorter owner history. Additionally, working-from-home will become a continued reality for many. Homes that are best able to accommodate remote workers, may also be able to demand premiums.

Photo by August de Richelieu

5. Workplaces Will Have To Adapt

The concept of work has definitely been redefined during this time of pandemic, as we have learned that the nation will not fall apart if most of us work remotely. This realization, coupled with the shriveling of the economy during the past few months has caused some serious adverse effects in the commercial real estate market. Although warehouse space and industrial properties may be less effected by the move to remote working, as these property types are driven by the physical needs of companies, all property classes have been effected by the slowing of the economy. Social distancing has not been kind to office and retail properties. These property types may need to undergo some significant reimagining, as they are tailored to inter-personal interaction. Further, the required increase in online-purchasing has only served to further accelerate what has been an apparent reality in retail real estate for sometime—a new normal is on the horizon. Flexibility will be key in the office and retail markets, where the spoils will go to the nimble. 

6. Sanitary And Sterile May Be Trendy

In the wake of this national health crisis, sterile is in. As the nation continues its path toward reopening, we have already begun to see businesses retooled in order to work toward the eradication of COVID-19. The concern over this virus will inevitably lead to an increased concern for the sterility of dwellings and structures. Demonstrable sanitary feature, systems and practice can allay health concerns and are certainly welcomed, if not mandatory, additions to any property. 

7. Fundamentals Still Rein Supreme

In the end, real estate is still real estate. It will continue to be a relatively illiquid asset and it will continue to have significant market lags. It will also continue to be a valuable resource and a viable way to build and shield wealth. All of these factors are why we love real estate so much. It’s indicators will remain the same: e.g. the employment rate, housing starts, mortgage rates, local economic factors, locations of major employers, etc., although, it is wholly possible that some new indicators may arise. I will avoid trying to speculate on which indicators may be significant, but one thing is clear, change is coming and it is important to be ready to navigate toward our new way of life. 

This has been my take on the impending changes to real estate coming in the wake of the pandemic. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Please comment below.

Social Justice Real Estate

I try my best on this blog to focus on the issues effecting the real estate market and offer a perspective uninfluenced by political factors. To the extent that social factors effect the real estate market, I am happy to address them, but I work diligently to ensure that this blog does not serve the dual purpose of promoting any particular political ideology. With that said, we are all contextual creatures and I, as an African-American male, cannot ignore the current outcry regarding police brutality against my fellow brothers and sisters.

Although the issue of police brutality against black and brown people is nothing new, it is refreshing to see all of the momentum that we are generating toward a solution. I am prayerful and hopeful that the demonstrations being made, the dialogues taking place and the changes that have begun are indicative of a new direction that our country is taking, toward working on resolving the clearly apparent and lingering racial biases found in our country. Police brutality is certainly an important issue that must be resolved, but is a symptom of an American history of racially stratified policies, both formal and informal, that have lasted for centuries and preserve advantages for those not of color. Given that the “complexity” of race relations in our country has developed over centuries, it is reasonable to expect that the solution to this issue, will not be a quick fix, but it absolutely necessary that every American commit to working toward a resolution of this issues. Until we heal our racial wound and deal with our checkered past, we cannot truly move forward as a nation.

What does this have to do with real estate?

Well, I’m glad that you asked that question. Real estate, in fact, has frequent been used to either preserve a status quo or to begin drastic change. From the mortgage redlining of the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s to racially restrictive land covenants, to blockbusting, to redistricting, to urban planning, to affordable housing programs, it is abundantly clear, real estate can influence the path of a society. The issues of the oft mentioned “inner city” are the result of urban planning, which has used zoning laws, covenants, variance hearings and other land use methods to ensure that some areas thrive and others flounder. These planning decisions had lasting effects, as communities were shaped by these decision, many of which have lasted for generations. 

Few issues are more political than land use and few are more hotly contested. Proposed major changes in zoning draw large numbers of reactions on both sides. Elections are won and lost over the location of new developments or the violation of the ubiquitous NIMBY. In fact, in most cities, big and small, there is no group more powerful and wealthy than the real estate lobby, which works to ensure that either status quo is maintained or that their notification of any changes is advanced as possible.

So if real estate can garner so much focus and convey so much influence, then the importance of acquiring as much of it as possible is clear. As Master P recently said, you have own blocks to create influence. In actuality, few things speak louder than the concerns of a collective of the largest landowners. If you are skeptical, look at how many of the largest campaign contributors of most local, mayoral and gubernatorial elections are directly tied to the real estate market. Also look at the amount of tax benefits, such as PILOTs and tax credits are given to large developers or businesses that intend to open headquarters in an area. Governments have in some instances taken land from smaller private landowners through eminent domain to ensure that such developments or headquaters are able to be built.

When it comes to real estate not much has changed from the days of feudalism—land equals influence, so if people of color want to be heard in a lasting way and establish generational change, one way to do so is to own land and/or to influence land policy. Real estate has always been a powerful tool for social change. If we do not mobilize and acquire, then we will continue to be at the mercy of the planning decisions of a group that does not share our interest. Diversity has many benefits, but it is important that we do everything that we can to secure our seat at the table, so our inclusion is a necessity and not a mere act of benevolence. 

Well that’s my take on social justice real estate. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Please comment below.

Back in the Saddle Again

Hello Readers/Subscribers of the Real Estate Think Tank,

I once read that it's not how many times that you fall off the horse, but how many times you get back on. With that said, I want to announce that I am back on "the horse" and will once again begin to deliver to you once again real estate content from an industry-insider's perspective. 

I have been blessed to have had the opportunity to try my hand at a few occupations and have had success in a couple of careers, but one thing remains consistent--no matter how far I try to stray, real estate is my calling. That said, I am going to begin to deliver content on a regular basis. In doing so, I will try my best to both be more technical, as well as more topical and will look to strike a balance between the two. 

It's great to be back at the Real Estate Think Tank and like a pair of well-worn jeans, it just feels right!

Yours Truly,

Stephon Martin