Shrinkflation In the Real Estate Market

Inflation has been a reality for the past couple of years. As a result, many companies have decided to respond to the rise in prices and the weakening of the dollar by shrinking the size of their products without reducing their price. This practice has been given the name “Shrinkflation,” which is  defined as “the practice of reducing a product's amount or volume per unit while continuing to offer it at the same price.” Shrinkflation started to become apparent during the pandemic, but was so craftily employed that many doubted that it was even happening. Now, however, it is well acknowledged that just about everything is smaller, but more expensive. Shrinkflation has so integrated itself in today's reality that it has made its way into the real estate market.

The Mortgage Solution and the Refinance Trap: Why the Lender Always Wins with a Mortgage

Mortgage rates have been news for some time now. Coverage about mortgages has recently turned toward news of a potential rate decrease. This potential drop is such a relief to everyone in the real estate market that even President Joe Biden mentioned it in his most recent State of the Union address. Although the reference was a political move and this blog is not political, the President's attempts to use the activity in the real estate market to further his agenda is yet another reminder of the influence that mortgage rates hold on this country.

2023 Recap (No Clever Title This Time)

Yet another year has come and gone for TRET and it’s time for our annual wrap up. Let’s start with this blog. This year started for us with a focus on individual wealth generation through real estate. This noble goal dominated the blog for the first couple of months of the year and was continued in an expert fashion by this year’s guest writer—Sharon Wagner. All of our residential real estate articles have had a wealth generation theme and we will continue to honor this commitment to wealth generation going forward.

There’s No Place Like Home For the Holidays: A Look At The Multifamily Market

Thanksgiving has passed and the holiday season has officially begun, so it is only natural that TRET finishes its real estate asset class series with a look at home—multifamily properties. Also, for those who consider the holidays a time to get away, we’ll also take a look at the state of hospitality properties, as well.

Industrial Real Estate: A Normal Market for a Somewhat Normal Time

Recently coming off the effects of nearly two years of rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the real estate market has been in a state of constant change for the past 18 months. As this blog has extensively discussed, real estate is very dependent on interest rates, as they influence property loans, cap rates and ultimately, property prices. Despite the recent period of adjustment, the economy seem to show signs of normalization, with mortgage rates, consumer loan rates and even treasury rates settling at levels much higher than those of the previous two years. By all indicators, it seems like our economy and we seem headed for a soft landing. No market has internalized the current state of the economy more than the Industrial Real Estate market.

Unlocking Retirement Wealth: A Senior’s Blueprint to House Flipping Success

By Sharon Wagner

Please enjoy this article from guest author, Sharon Wagner. TRET will return next month with another article continuing its series on property types.

Navigating the world of house flipping can be an exciting and profitable journey for seniors who are seeking an active and rewarding retirement. While the venture promises lucrative gains, it also calls for strategic planning, unwavering dedication, and tactical execution.

The following are indispensable guidelines aimed at assisting mature adults in carving out a successful career in the house-flipping arena, while also enjoying a balanced lifestyle. The Real Estate Think Tank explores these crucial facets in detail.

TRET the Podcast Episode 16: Interest Rates

Join TRET for it's 16th episode, as Stephon discusses the effects of current interest rate activity on the real estate market.

TRET Episode 16: Interest Rates

Is the American Office Market Dead?

There was a time in the not too distant past when I considered office properties “the best of all worlds.” They offered the flexibility to create leases that were in between the detailed relationships established by industrial and retail properties and the more straight-forward residential lease. Rental calculations were relatively simple—base rent plus utilities and any tenant improvement allowances. Occasionally, common area improvements or maintenance factored into the equation. The property was typically used from 7 am until 7 pm, so utilities were relatively low and predictable. Wear and tear on the property was much less than any other real estate property class.

The necessity of office space was at one point unquestioned and tenants were readily available. Space considerations were for the most part limited to whether the location was large enough and had enough amenities or services to meet the tenants needs. Leases were easy to enter, easy to renew and easy to understand. For owners, office properties offered many of the benefits of owning a commercial property with fewer of the complexities that come with other property types.

The End of Summer

Stephon Martin

August is coming to a close and although Summer isn’t officially over until September 23^rd, the end of August has an unofficial feel of transition. School will soon have begun for all children in the United States and the country will attempt to push forward out of the shadow of COVID-19. Some areas will forge ahead more successfully than others, but an attempt will be made by all. The beginning of September means that the holiday season is just around the corner. With the impending change of the season, how will the real estate market be affected?

Press ‘Home’ — Selling Properties With Smart Tech

 

Please enjoy this article from guest author Suzie Wilson  of  Happierhome.net

There are many advantages to home automation: ease of use, better accessibility, and let’s face it — there’s something cool about a fireplace that starts up when you clap. What you may not have foreseen, however, are the benefits that technology provides when selling a property.

The Role of Tech

 In almost all areas of life, it’s clear that the pandemic has increased our reliance on tech. This is no less true in the housing market, where the need to actually step inside a property has been somewhat reduced by the use of 3D walkthroughs, video-chat tours, virtual open houses, and Zoom realtor consultations. This is good news for prospective sellers as, in the wake of COVID, housing sales have bounced back to levels unseen since pre-2008. If you are looking to sell your property, physical limitations need not slow you down.

Foreclosures and the Moratorium

Stephon Martin

The Biden administration has extended the COVID-19 moratorium on foreclosures to July 31, 2021. Totally avoiding the policy and ideological discussions that could be had about such a decision, one thing is apparent—the additional month extension will increase the backlog of foreclosure and eviction cases that courts around the country will face once this moratorium has ended. Absent any legislative changes, the implementation of creative government programs mitigating distressed loans or both, foreclosure filings, executed foreclosure judgments and foreclosure-related evictions are all set to see an uptick over the next year.

An increase in residential foreclosures and evictions is certainly bad news for affected homeowners and tenants, who will have to find new living arrangements, undergo costly moves in short timeframes, uproot their lifestyles and, in some instances, face long term financial effects. Increasing foreclosures will also serve as a market correction in the real estate market, which is currently driven by inventory scarcity. Amidst the market change and its social implications, many real estate investors can be left wondering which strategy to employ. The answer is simple—any or all of them.

The End of 2020: Now What?

2020 has been a life-changing year for everyone, literally everyone. From the global pandemic, to the fluctuating economy, not to mention the seismic shift in the perception of "going to work," it is safe to say that the world is different place than it was 12 months ago. Now what?

Every year Bloomberg Business Week puts out its "Bloomberg 50"--a list of 50 individuals that have made their mark during the prior year. Although this year's list contains a number of impressive men and women who were able to quickly mobilize and make moving, positive contributions during this tumultuous year, it is notable that not one member of this list was mentioned for contributions to the real estate market. In fact, there are many executives on the list that are touted for reducing the size and/or the footprint of their companies, which in many instances includes real estate divestment. Furthermore, Blackrock, a private equity that is well know for its real estate investments, has made the list, not for real estate, but for its renegotiation of national debts in South America.

Lesson From the Pandemic For Residential Landlords

The effects of Covid-19 on the residential rental market are apparent—many jurisdictions have enacted rent freezes, landlord/tenant courts have been shut down and moratorium on evictions and foreclosures have been set. Moreover, the accompanying downturn in the economy has left many without the ability to pay rent on time, if at all.

Considered rationally, the need for all of the social safety nets put in place for renters is obvious. The only way to truly survive a global disaster is to band together and implement a series of solutions. Radical measures had to be taken to mitigate the global pandemic. “We’re all in this together,” is not just a motto, it’s a reality. As a society, we are tasked with taking care of our most vulnerable populations, because the repercussions of not doing so are far more expensive than the costs of their protection. In this instance in particular, increased homelessness and/or a wave of relocations due to a rise in home displacement would only serve to exacerbate infection rates around the nation. That said, here are some clear lessons that residential landlords can learn in the wake of this global event.

Real Estate in the Time of Pandemic

Photo by CDC

With our country beginning to find its way to a new normal at the end of months of quarantine, we in the real estate market are all left with one nagging question—What should we expect from here? 

Like most people, I do not have definitive answer. If you are over the age of thirteen, however, this pandemic is certainly not the first market disruption that you have experienced and with each such occurrence, we all learn some valuable lessons about the real estate industry. With that said, here are a couple of lessons that we can learn from this particular time of change: 

Social Justice Real Estate

I try my best on this blog to focus on the issues effecting the real estate market and offer a perspective uninfluenced by political factors. To the extent that social factors effect the real estate market, I am happy to address them, but I work diligently to ensure that this blog does not serve the dual purpose of promoting any particular political ideology. With that said, we are all contextual creatures and I, as an African-American male, cannot ignore the current outcry regarding police brutality against my fellow brothers and sisters.

Change Is A Coming: How Current Economic Conditions Should Affect Real Estate Investment

Many economist and market pundits are predicting a market downturn, beginning some time in 2019 or 2020. All of the indicators of an overheated boom seem to be present--increasing margin debt, decreasing dividends, stock market price inflation and increased levels of corporate debt. Essentially, low interest rates have made credit more accessible. As a result, businesses are using credit to buy back some of their outstanding stock. In response to the relative decrease in availability of stock, stock market prices are rising, increasing household wealth across the nation. Spurred on in part by technological development, the economy seems to be booming at present, but it is important to note that mechanism that is fueling this increase in wealth is debt.

In the Weeds: How a Multidisciplinary Approach to Real Estate Can Lead to Increased Success

I once had a conversation with a coworker in which I expressed my frustration regarding the siloed view of real estate that many real estate professionals seem to employ as a matter of course. I complained that so few real estate professionals truly attempted to view real estate as a multifaceted asset and instead cared only to focus on their specialization within the industry. I wondered out loud how productive the industry could truly be if, in addition to their own professional perspectives, appraisers attempted to see the industry a little more like attorneys and attorneys tried to orient themselves to view the market like investors and investors like Relators, etc. 

My coworker listened politely until I was finished and wisely stated that the reason such cross-pollination of perspectives was not present in the real estate industry was that everyone was too “in the weeds” in their various roles and on their various projects to even attempt to take such a view. It was at that moment that I realized that I realized that my coworker had accurately described a condition that plagues much of the real estate industry—myopia. Indeed, many real estate professionals become so great at their specialization that cannot see the forest for trees or better yet, the weeds. 

My How Local Lending Has Changed!

Today's banks are unabashedly international businesses which thrive on providing services and taking advantage of opportunities throughout the world. Long gone are the days of the local Savings and Loan as the provider of the community's mortgage needs. Instead, behemoths of consolidations dominate today's lending scene, thriving off of large economies of scale that make any potentially smaller competitors shutter. This change in the role of banking in the community, although the largely the product of intentional moves by the banking industry and Congress, is not without its effects on the real estate industry, particularly the residential market.

In order to explain the effect of big banks on the residential real estate market, one must understand the role of local banks prior to the expansion and consolidation of banks that led to the current situation. Until the 1980's, US mortgage lending was dominated by small local banks and Savings and Loan Associations (S&L's), local banking entities that engaged in lending and offering savings deposit accounts. Initially, S&L's were heavily regulated and restricted from offering consumer loans and investing deposits in most of the investment vehicles available in the market. The Savings and Loan model relied on a favorable treatment by the Federal Reserve to allow for an increased spread between the rate charged on mortgage lending and the rate offered on deposit accounts. S&L's also frequently managed underwriting risk with local market knowledge.

Why Historical Beta Does Not Always Work For Real Estate

Real estate investment is typically viewed as an essential part of any balanced portfolio. Its immutable characteristics, such as its relatively long pricing cycles and its above average returns, cause real estate to be seen as a stable asset. On the other hand, due to its sensitivity to interest rates, its lack of liquidity at the property level and its longer periods appreciation, exposure to the real estate can also serve as an inflationary hedge. Although real estate exposure may be purchased for any number of reasons, the risk profile of real estate assets is of interest to most, if not all, real estate investors.

The ways in which the risk profile of real estate has been expressed vary from the informal to the highly computational. On the most informal end of the spectrum, owner-operators of property frequently concern themselves with the tax consequences and appreciation of the property, content to face changes in the market or externalities, as they come. On the opposite end of the spectrum are portfolio managers and fixed-income investors, who seek quantifiable means to express the volatility of real estate securities. One such attempt at quantifying the volatility of real estate and its related securities is through the use of real estate's historical beta.

From Property to Liens and Back

In light of my previous post on timing the market, I thought that I would follow up with a post on one type of investment strategy that takes advantage of the cyclical nature of real estate.

There are a number of ways to invest in real estate. From property acquisition to shorting housing starts to buying equity in a REIT, each type of investment in the real estate market comes with its own idiosyncrasies, which must be understood in order to ensure maximum profitability. Specialization in one category or subcategory is often expected and praised among real estate practitioners and investors. The various entry points into real estate, however, allow for diversification. Purchasing property, notes or securitized bonds provide direct access to the real estate market, while liens, nonperforming notes and real estate derivatives can serve to counteract real estate defaults, if properly purchased. Although, given the change in the regulatory climate for derivatives, real estate derivatives have become more theoretical than piratical.

Since the real estate market has some many points of entry, one can balance a real estate portfolio by investing in different asset classes, depending on the performance of the market at any given time. In this way, an investor can capitalize on the cyclical nature of real estate. One such way to diversify is to purchase property for appreciation and purchase liens and nonperforming notes as the market declines.