Friday, June 26, 2020

Real Estate in the Time of Pandemic

Photo by CDC

With our country beginning to find its way to a new normal at the end of months of quarantine, we in the real estate market are all left with one nagging question—What should we expect from here? 

Like most people, I do not have definitive answer. If you are over the age of thirteen, however, this pandemic is certainly not the first market disruption that you have experienced and with each such occurrence, we all learn some valuable lessons about the real estate industry. With that said, here are a couple of lessons that we can learn from this particular time of change: 

1. COVID-19 WASN'T THE END OF THE WORLD
Photo by Anna Shvets

The Corona virus pandemic is clearly a historical event and one of the most pervasive pandemics ever. Pandemics are an unfortunate part of human history and have happened a number of times in the last century. The world-wide nature of this particular pandemic, coupled with the inter-connectivity of today’s world, may make our current situation historically novel, however, despite the idyiosyncracies of this pandemic, humans have a history of overcoming pandemics and moving forward. The loss that COVID-19 has caused, in lives, wealth and production cannot be replaced. It is important to remember, however, that while the results of this destruction must be mourned, the real estate market will come back and has rebounded from worse. 


2. WITH EVERY DISRUPTION COME OPPORTUNITY

Large market disruptions and crises are much like forest fires--they are extremely destructive to everything effected. Also like forest fires, these events clear a path for growth that may not have been possible prior. The real estate market, like most other markets, will rebound and it is the duty of every real estate professional to be diligent in looking for ways to contribute toward the structuring of a new normal in our changing world. 

3. THINGS WILL NOT BE THE SAME 

There are a number of lessons that the past couple of months have taught us, not the least of which are the capabilities of our remote learning and working infrastructures and the importance of residential real estate in times of crisis. Unfortunately, the pandemic has also made many of us leery of in-person interaction and created a hypersensitivity around perceived health. Some of the changes that have resulted from the pandemic may dissipate over time, but no one who has lived through the quarantine will ever forget the experience. That said, it is important that real estate professionals stay alert to changing trends as we all quickly try to determine which of the adjustments made will become a regular part of our lives. 



4. HOME WILL TAKE ON A NEW ROLE
One thing that has been apparent throughout the quarantine is that there is no place like home. Residential real estate will certainly be viewed differently going forward. Consumers are bound to be much more beholden to their preferences and the sanitary status of a property may be its selling point. Newer construction may be able to demand more of a premium initially, given its modern features and shorter owner history. Additionally, working-from-home will become a continued reality for many. Homes that are best able to accommodate remote workers, may also be able to demand premiums.

Photo by August de Richelieu

5. WORKPLACES WILL HAVE TO ADAPT

Photo by Ivan SamkovThe concept of work has definitely been redefined during this time of pandemic, as we have learned that the nation will not fall apart if most of us work remotely. This realization, coupled with the shriveling of the economy during the past few months has caused some serious adverse effects in the commercial real estate market. Although warehouse space and industrial properties may be less effected by the move to remote working, as these property types are driven by the physical needs of companies, all property classes have been effected by the slowing of the economy. Social distancing has not been kind to office and retail properties. These property types may need to undergo some significant reimagining, as they are tailored to inter-personal interaction. Further, the required increase in online-purchasing has only served to further accelerate what has been an apparent reality in retail real estate for sometime—a new normal is on the horizon. Flexibility will be key in the office and retail markets, where the spoils will go to the nimble. 

6. SANITARY AND STERILE MAYBE TRENDY

Photo by cottonbro In the wake of this national health crisis, sterile is in. As the nation continues its path toward reopening, we have already begun to see businesses retooled in order to work toward the eradication of COVID-19. The concern over this virus will inevitably lead to an increased concern for the sterility of dwellings and structures. Demonstrable sanitary feature, systems and practice can allay health concerns and are certainly welcomed, if not mandatory, additions to any property. 

7. FUNDAMENTALS STILL REIN SUPREME

In the end, real estate is still real estate. It will continue to be a relatively illiquid asset and it will continue to have significant market lags. It will also continue to be a valuable resource and a viable way to build and shield wealth. All of these factors are why we love real estate so much. It’s indicators will remain the same: e.g. the employment rate, housing starts, mortgage rates, local economic factors, locations of major employers, etc., although, it is wholly possible that some new indicators may arise. I will avoid trying to speculate on which indicators may be significant, but one thing is clear, change is coming and it is important to be ready to navigate toward our new way of life. 

This has been my take on the impending changes to real estate coming in the wake of the pandemic. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Please comment below.

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